Sunday, September 26, 2021

Weather Outlook: What’s Up?

By: Dylan Stone/Senior Writer

After experiencing our first snowfall and delay of the year many may be wondering, what kind of weather are we going to get this winter. Well, I decided to ask our (unofficial) residential meteorologist, Mr. Alec Mazikewich, to see what he thought our weather might be like going into the new year. So, I headed to his room with a series of questions involving our upcoming weather.

Q: Most people say that we had a relatively mild winter last year, what does or what doesn’t that mean, if anything, in terms of this year’s winter? (Does this indicate a more intense winter?)

A: No, when forecasters look to predict a winter season, they use data accumulated over a 30 year period rather than using data from just one season.

Q: Do you think we’ll get a lot of snow this year? Why?

A: Based on the data coming in regarding temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, there is
no great indication of large amounts of snowfall or not. In the last 3 months, there
has been an increase in the North Pacific temperatures giving rise to a neutral El
Nino/La Nina pattern. Along the equator in the Pacific, where we look for an
increase or decrease in water temperatures; it seems to be holding about normal and
not favoring either the El Nino or the La Nina pattern.

Q: When can we expect the first significant snowfall?

A: With the data, I have looked at, aside from a small cold snap we saw
November, we should have temperatures around normal or slightly above until
Christmas break. We will start to see a typical winter with colder
temperatures and an increase in snowfall. I think we will see more in the form of
Lake Effect snow with 1-3 more significant snowstorms in late January to early
March. If more cold air holds in place over our area, the significant snowstorms
will track farther south.

Mr. Mazikewich did predict the possibility of a snow event between Thanksgiving and
Christmas. This prediction turned out to be true as winter storm Ezekiel dropped a foot of snow around the area.

Q: In the past, we’ve had some big snowstorms around March. Is it likely for that to happen again?

A: When forecasting months in advance like this, anything is possible. Let’s hope we
see increasing spring-like temperatures in March, like the March we experienced in 2012.
That year we started the month around 32°F and ended the month around 70°F.

From Mr. Mazikewich’s answers, there seems to be a possibility of an abundance of snow but there is no concrete evidence of that being true this year. Additionally, so far this year we have seen temperatures above average so anything is really possible, after all, we do live in northeast Pennsylvania.

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Kimberly Davenport
Kimberly Davenport grew up in Montrose, Pennsylvania. She currently teaches English and digital journalism at Blue Ridge High School, and is the adviser for the school's online newspaper, the Raider Reader. Kimberly loves traveling, spending time with her family (especially her grandchildren), and can often be found reading a good book.


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